USD/JPY - marco trading cycles and year projection
USDJPY pair has been through a wide range due to Brexit and Trump chaos ( from 99.11 to 118.59, almost 2000 pips range). After settling the dust, this pair has been trading inside the green channel. Such downtrend has been formed since Dec 2016 and it was broken in Sep 2017. Using fibonacci retracement to illustrate the trading interval in daily chart, it shows the currency price is between 0.85 fibo and 1 fibo ( 113.45 - 114.483). Our team suggest three trading plans as following:
i. Waiting for a proper retracement to 0.76 fibo ( as well as the green trend line ) and go long
- cut loss if the green line does not hold ( daily close below it )
ii. Short around 114.4s and aim for the 0.76 fibo
- risk and reward will be around 1:2 ( 80: 160) at least, SL will place around 115.2 ( which is also the pivot high)
iii. Observe whether the price will come back to the green channel, and trade accordingly
Our team predicts the target price in mid 2018 will be 118s as the market is experiencing the feds interest rate cycle and the tax plan in US. Also, 118.73 is the 1.618 fibo extenstion and the old pivot high in Dec 2016. With both technical and fundamental, its likely the target will come true.
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